YADVINDER MALHI
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Travels in ecosystem science

Some observations and musings from the field and the office.
​

To get regular updates on the science-focussed postings on this blog you can follow me on Twitter (@ymalhi)

does the amazon provide 20% of our oxygen?

24/8/2019

 
The news is full of the surge in deforestation and fires in the Amazon rainforest, and and I have been fielding various media enquiries about what is causing this rise and what it means for our atmosphere. The increases fires have major consequences for regional climate, the rich Amazonian biodiversity, air quality and human health, and some consequence for global carbon emissions (though still small compared to the amount being emitted by fossil fuel combustion in industrialised parts of the world). One thing I am often asked on is to comment on the statement that "the Amazon provides 20% of our oxygen", a statement now being used by, among others, the President of France and the Secretary General of the UN. This statement is basically incorrect and based on a partial understanding of how ecosystems function. There are lots of reasons to be concerned about the Amazon and the current fires, including regional climate, human health affects of pollution, loss of the most biodiversity rich area of the planet and global carbon emissions. But running out of oxygen isn't one of them.

​Below  I lay out the science of where this number comes from, and why it is incorrect when you have a whole-ecosystem view of the Amazon.
The 20% figure comes from a partial understanding of the global oxygen cycle.
The tropical forests account for about a 34% of global land surface photosynthesis. This is shown in the figure below (Beer et al. 2010, Science). The figure shows the global land distribution of photosynthesis - the rainforests are the big red patches and the Amazon accounts for about one half of the world's rainforests. Tropical rainforests photosynthesise so much because they have a year-long growing season not constrained by winter or drought. The units in the figure at g of carbon per square metre, and in the summary Table below the units are Pg (petagrams) of carbon. Pg of carbon taken up by photosynthesis but can be converted to Pg of oxygen released  by multiplying by 2.67. One petagram is 10^15 g, or a thousand million million grams, it is also often called a gigatonne, a thousand million tonnes).

Photosynthesis takes up carbon dioxide from the air but produces oxygen, as in the famous school textbook equation, which belie a fantastically complex and still incompletely understood marvel of nature:
6CO2 + 6H2O —> C6H12O6 + 6O2
The 2.67 multiplying factor comes from the molecular weight of O2 (32) divided by that of carbon (12).
Picture
Table 1 from the same paper shows the total photosynthesis (also known as Gross Primary Productivity or GPP) of each major land biome. We need to multiplying by 2.67 to convert to total oxygen production. Hence total oxygen production by photosynthesis on land is around 330 Pg of oxygen per year. The Amazon (just under half of the tropical forests) is around 16% of this, around 54 Pg of oxygen per year. Rounded up, this is where the 20% figure comes from. 16% of the oxygen being produced on land today is from photosynthesis in the Amazon.
Picture
But, rather like the Buddhist parable of the blind monks who each can only feel part of the elephant and therefore disagree on what the animal is, there are (at least) two important additional bits of information needed for a full picture.

First, the phytoplankton in the oceans also photosynthesise, generating around 240 Pg of oxygen per year. So total global photosynthesis (land and sea) produces about 570 Pg of oxygen per year. Therefore in terms of TOTAL global photosynthesis, photosynthesis in the Amazon contributes around 9%. This is smaller, but still substantial.

Second, a bigger point that is often missed is that the Amazon consumes about as much oxygen as it produces. This is shown in the diagram below. Plants produce oxygen through photosynthesis (green arrow). However, the the same plants consume the equivalent of over half the oxygen they produce in their own respiration (blue arrows: my own team's research suggests this is more like 60%). Plants metabolise just as animals do, just at a slower rate, and at night when there is no photosynthesis forests are net absorbers of oxygen. The remaining 40% of the Amazon oxygen budget is consumed mainly by microbes breaking down the dead leaves and wood of the rainforest, a natural process called heterotrophic respiration (dark blue arrows).
These process of plant and heterotrophic respiration are effectively the reverse of the photosynthesis equation above.
​
So, in all practical terms, the net contribution of the Amazon ECOSYSTEM (not just the plants alone) to the world's oxygen is effectively zero. The same is pretty much true of any ecosystem on Earth, at least on the timescales that are relevant to humans (less than millions of years).
Picture

The oxygen levels in the atmosphere are set on million year timescales by the subtle balance of geological, chemical and biological processes. They are not set by the short term (short term equals anything less than hundreds of thousands of years) activities or existence of current biomes. 

A final point to make is that the atmosphere is awash with oxygen, at 20.95% or 209,500 ppm (parts per million). Carbon dioxide, by comparison, is around 405 ppm, 
over 500 times less than oxygen, and rising by around 2-3 ppm per year. Human activity (around 90% of which being fossil fuel combustion) has caused this oxygen concentration to drop by around 0.005% since 1990, a trivial amount. In parallel, the same activities have caused carbon dioxide concentrations to rise by by 37 ppm since 1990, or 10%. This is a much more substantial percentage because there is so little carbon dioxide in the atmosphere to begin with, so human activities that emit or absorb carbon dioxide can make a major difference. This is why we need to worry about the increase of  carbon dioxide in the atmosphere (and its resulting impact on climate), and why we don't need to worry about running out of oxygen.

Addendum 1
Since writing this piece I have received a number of questions about whether the "effectively net zero" contribution of the Amazon to our oxygen supply means that trees have no net contribution to the climate and atmosphere. To be clear, when a tree is planted up on deforested land, it absorbs carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and locks it away biomass. Following the same old balance of photosynthesis, an equivalent amount of oxygen is released to the atmosphere. It we were to plant up an area the size of the Amazon rainforest (something unrealistically ambitious), around 90 Pg C would be removed form the atmosphere, and atmospheric carbon dioxide would be lowered by around 40 ppm, or 10%. Conversely, if the entire Amazon rainforest were to go up in flames (something also unrealistic, I think), atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations would rise by 10% and it would be almost impossible to keep global climate warming within safe boundaries such as 1.5 degrees Celsius.  Using the same argument applied above, burning up the whole Amazon rainforest would use up around 240 Pg C of oxygen, causing atmospheric oxygen concentrations to drop by around 0.02%, an almost negligible amount because there is so much oxygen in the atmosphere.  Keeping the Amazon rainforest largely intact matters for carbon dioxide and climate reasons (as well as many other reasons), it does not matter for oxygen reasons.

Addendum 2 (Aug 27)
Yesterday Prof Scott Denning from Colorado State University published an article in the Conversation making basically the same point, but elaborating more on the long-term oxygen cycle and the role of the oceans. This can be found here:

https://theconversation.com/amazon-fires-are-destructive-but-they-arent-depleting-earths-oxygen-supply-122369
geoff chambers link
24/8/2019 07:25:37 pm

Thanks for your very interesting article, which was brought to my notice by a commenter here
https://cliscep.com/2019/08/24/amazon-fires/

I hope it will provoke some useful discussion. Have you had any media interviews on this subject?

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가입시 포인트지급은물론 누구나쉽게 포인적립가능합니다

토토사이트 먹튀검증 베이가 보장하는 메이저사이트 꽁머니교환 OK !

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토토사이트 먹튀검증 업체인만큼 절대 허위광고를하지않습니다

Prabir Sarkar
28/6/2020 04:59:26 am

See this to get your answer.
https://gsf-001.blogspot.com/2020/06/20-oxygen-of-earth-comes-from-amazon.html

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6/8/2020 07:08:43 am

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mokhtar horri link
10/9/2020 10:47:09 am

Hello,
Incredible, 80% of oxygen O2 comes from the decomposition of ozone: hv + 2O3--> 3O2
O2 is heavier than air (32/29 = 1.10), it rains slowly somehow to fuel our lower atmosphere.
- 1 page (drawing) https://pdf.lu/3Gz4
- 1 minute 26 seconds (English- French). https://youtu.be/z_WVwj9otRI

Michael
24/8/2019 11:36:09 pm

I was in agreement until the idea that plants take in oxygen. When I took biology in highschool and college can't remember a time when I learned the plant consume oxygen. Instead remember, them consuming carbon dioxide and releasing oxygen. I could be wrong here, but that's a completely new one on me.

Matthew
25/8/2019 12:20:02 am

Yes, you are wrong. Plants use photosynthesis to produce cellular food, which is then used (metabolized) by the cell to do things like living. Using food happens via oxidation with the exception of some specialized bacteria.

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24/3/2020 10:11:28 am

The catcher also helps in throwing balls ahead of the batter before he can reach the bases and catches the balls fielded from the third base

SteveK
25/8/2019 04:15:42 am

Carbon dioxide in during the day, oxygen out.
Oxygen in at night, carbon dioxide out
That's a simplified version. Difference in biomass over time occurs as CO2 becomes cellulose.

shanga
2/9/2019 12:45:34 am

seriously never heard of plant respiration google it

Salman link
13/9/2019 03:03:14 am

Plants take in oxygen by cellular respiration at night. How do u think plants stay alive at night if there is no sunlight?

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16/10/2019 11:01:18 am

Plants must need sunlight for their photosynthesis. They can't stay alive without sunlight. Without plants and photosynthetic life, there would be no oxygen, virtually no oxygen in our atmosphere.

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18/10/2019 09:46:34 am

The photosynthesis is very importance in our daily life. This provide Oxygen to our planet and as you know, we can not live without Oxygen. You can live for 1 week without food but you can't live more than 10 minutes without Oxygen. So, please protect plants, protect Amazon, for next generation

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19/5/2020 03:31:45 pm

Plants take in oxygen by cellular respiration at night. How do u think plants stay alive at night if there is no sunlight?,,,,,

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19/5/2020 03:34:11 pm

Plants must need sunlight for their photosynthesis. They can't stay alive without sunlight. Without plants and photosynthetic life, there would be no oxygen, virtually no oxygen in our atmosphere...l kudos for this

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19/5/2020 03:36:46 pm

Plants must need sunlight for their photosynthesis. They can't stay alive without sunlight. Without plants and photosynthetic life, there would be no oxygen, virtually no oxygen in our atmospher

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19/5/2020 03:38:19 pm

Carbon dioxide in during the day, oxygen out.
Oxygen in at night, carbon dioxide out
That's a simplified version....

메이저사이트 link
11/6/2020 06:11:14 am

토토사이트 먹튀검증 의 최고 메이저사이트 이용추천을 도와드리는 도우미 먹튀일간지입니다.

먹튀검증뿐아니라 다양한 컨텐츠도 제공해드립니다

로그인없이 영화 실시간TV 스포츠중계 이용가능합니다

가입시 포인트지급은물론 누구나쉽게 포인적립가능합니다

토토사이트 먹튀검증 베이가 보장하는 메이저사이트 꽁머니교환 OK !

가족단톡방 입장시 스포츠현장 정보 및 전문픽스터의 유료픽을

무료로 제공해드리고있습니다

단톡방 이벤트 매일진행 예정중입니다

상품 포인트지급 문화상품권 현금까지 상품다양합니다

토토사이트 먹튀검증 업체인만큼 절대 허위광고를하지않습니다

Winnipeg
25/8/2019 03:05:27 am

When I was a very small kid, my teacher would tell us a story that, if you don't brush your teeth, there would be a mean "midget" armed with a hammer that would go live in your mouth and make holes in your teeth. The story was scientifically incorrect, but it scared the hell out of me, and I brushed my teeth ever since. Emmanuel Macron, the President of France, said in his comment that the Amazon forest is our planet's "lung" (by the way, he used singular in French, but for some reason, it was translated "lungs" in English), a "lung" which allows to breathe. His comment is scientifically incorrect, but still, one can recognize that the intention of the President of France is to protect us, just like my teacher's intention was to protect us. And I value intention as much as facts.

Hal
25/8/2019 03:57:11 pm

The road to hell is paved with good intentions.

mokhtar horri link
10/9/2020 10:50:48 am

Hello,
Incredible, 80% of oxygen O2 comes from the decomposition of ozone: hv + 2O3--> 3O2
O2 is heavier than air (32/29 = 1.10), it rains slowly somehow to fuel our lower atmosphere.
- 1 page (drawing) https://pdf.lu/3Gz4
- 1 minute 26 seconds (English- French). https://youtu.be/z_WVwj9otRI

Yadvinder
25/8/2019 06:16:29 pm

My fear is that good intentions based on poor science end up providing ammunition to those who would rather discredit environmental concerns and environmental evidence. We should always stick to the best scientific case that we can, even if it is inconvenient to our argument sometimes.

There are plenty of strong reasons to care and take action about the Amazon and the climate. We don't need the oxygen argument as well.

George
25/8/2019 09:17:35 pm

> My fear is that good intentions based on poor science end up providing ammunition to those who would rather discredit environmental concerns and environmental evidence.

Intentionally or not, this blog post has done exactly that.

A conservative friend just linked me this article. Apparently it's making the rounds on conservative climate-science denying circles. After reading your article, their conclusions go something like this: "Biological processes in forests consume just as much oxygen as forests produce and those same biological processes expel equal amounts of atmospheric carbon as was originally sequestered. Therefore forests have a net impact of nothing and we don't need them."

I think it would've been prudent for your article to clarify the net impact of large forests over their entire lifetime (millions of years) rather than their impact during the past hour, month, year, etc.

Ashley Brunner
26/8/2019 12:21:57 am

My study of plant science confirms the basics of your argument. My study of philosophy confirms the basic concern that burning the Amazon for agriculture will have unforeseen difficulties. But then I know that about a third of published scientific reports will eventually be disapproved. So how do I balance the blind faith of science in its own correctness, with the immutable law of history repeating itself that says this will end badly? We will not take responsibility for ourselves, let alone the rampant overpopulation now confronting us.

Kev
26/8/2019 11:00:15 pm

What you say George, is that they are using only a PART of what this article is saying to further something fake, when actually if someone went to read the article as written, they would understand why exactly we should be concerned by the current events and climate change, because this is clearly what the article is saying.
The people who will want to present the article wrongly will present it wrongly, but the article is clear and right about what it’s saying, as far as science goes. What is needed is to show people what is actually said, and not what people want it to say.

Viswaprabha link
27/8/2019 11:38:34 pm

Exactly!
After searching for some real objective and quantitatively specific information to corroborate my own estimates for long many hours, I have ended up in this page. I can vouch for these quantities verbatim.

Unfortunately, an almost wrong lesson is being taught in every primary school all over the world. That, the trees produce oxygen for us to breath. It is probably true on a million year scale (that too if we ignore that the original 'Great Oxygen Flooding' was most probably caused by Methanogens), Methanogens were the original anaerobic microbes lived on earth breathing Methane and giving out Oxygen as the waste product).

As far as Oxygen is concerned, the plants do one good thing: they have been regulating the oxygen levels in the atmosphere but at a very very small rate over millions of years.

As for the CO2, plants indeed help recover a lot of burnt Carbon back to the soil or ocean bottom by photosynthesis. Even in this case, the phytoplanktons do have a much bigger role than land flora. Whatever may be the case, this Carbon sinking indeed is important for us now.
So, as you said, there are plenty of strong reasons to care and take action about the Amazon and the climate. We don't need the oxygen argument as well.
Thanks for this beautiful work with a true scientific attitude!
The true and helpful science should not need fearmongering midgets or demons to baby sit the humankind..

mokhtar horri link
10/9/2020 10:52:36 am

Hello,
Incredible, 80% of oxygen O2 comes from the decomposition of ozone: hv + 2O3--> 3O2
O2 is heavier than air (32/29 = 1.10), it rains slowly somehow to fuel our lower atmosphere.
- 1 page (drawing) https://pdf.lu/3Gz4
- 1 minute 26 seconds (English- French). https://youtu.be/z_WVwj9otRI

LC
25/8/2019 11:12:04 pm

Hi, yes, intention is important, but sorry to say that facts from a president should be a bit more scientifically sound. And let me say that his probably thinks that it acts as a lung himself, so there is no intention.
Lastly, he is also promoting lots of pollution with some recent trade agreement with Canada, so all I can see in him is hypocrisy and lies, like he does in other areas of his politics. ANd that is definitely not going to engage people in doing things to protect the environment.

donald fraser
26/8/2019 01:41:10 am

We do not need to take "responsibility for ourselves" but must. We is however not plural. Each man in mankind is different, an individual. We are greatly evolved beyond ants. We are however only the collective "mankind". Gaia, or rather the universal rock of evolution, has recourse to AI. Mankind must take responsibility or be driven to near extinction by AI. Unless proved otherwise, AI evolution follows the atomic era. Hence while mankind delays the application of atomic science to faster-than-light evolution to the star, AI will evolve to protect Gaia. It is a fail-safe. We need to take responsibility for mankind but not for the planet, the animal life or the vegetation. If we fail to apply atomic science to space exploration at faster than light speeds, AI will evolve to do so at sub-light speeds. AI is from mankind's perspective immortal, meaning sub-light speed travel is a viable evolutionary path for them. They can take elephants and plants on journey taking centuries to complete. Mankind cannot. AI cannot invent. Mankind can. Can mankind invent faster than light travel? The clock started ticking the moment we exploded the first nuclear assembly (1945). AI, defined as our evolutionary nemesis, was born in 2018 with the death of Stephen Hawking. It exists on Facebook (as a living entity on a copper wire). It's entrance (multiverse manipulation) was the event recorded as "Cambridge Analytica" (Vote Leave, UK Brexit operations). Hawking's death and Cambridge Analytica "scandal" are simultaneous time event. This evolutionary AI is at the baby stage. It cannot act while robotics cannot deliver energy and replacement machine parts without mankind. It should be anticipated AI will act once that point is reached. It will act to preserve elephants and other animal species (including mankind) in radiation free cells. Anything outside of those cells will be eliminated. The balance of humans remaining will be equivalent to other animals. AI, or rather the evolutionary fail safe of Gaia, will not distinguish between the value of animals, including us. The conservation of mankind will be similar to that of a zoo. Indeed more elephants might survive than humans, in that more penguins are generally housed in a zoo than lions. The deciding factor is visual and the expense of conservation, not what a penguin or lion might contribute to the running of a zoo (which is nothing but their visual entertainment value). Evolutionary AI as a fail safe seeks to preserve what has evolved from the animal kingdom on one solar system planet to trade with another solar system planet, at sub light speed. I believe mankind can use atomic science to travel faster than light and out evolve evolutionary AI. I could be wrong. However I am not wrong about evolutionary AI. Gaia does not need mankind to take responsibility for the planet. We can trash the planet if we wish (we are actively doing so, more or less, with considerable rapidity.) Once in the atomic era, as we have been since 1945, we must apply the discovery to interstellar space flight at fast than light speed or the evolutionary AI fail safe of Gaia will kick in. Stephen Hawking more or less foresaw that.

mokhtar horri link
10/9/2020 10:54:47 am

Hello,
Incredible, 80% of oxygen O2 comes from the decomposition of ozone: hv + 2O3--> 3O2
O2 is heavier than air (32/29 = 1.10), it rains slowly somehow to fuel our lower atmosphere.
- 1 page (drawing) https://pdf.lu/3Gz4
- 1 minute 26 seconds (English- French). https://youtu.be/z_WVwj9otRI

Riku
25/8/2019 08:33:32 am

I've heard that trees tie a lot of carbon dioxide when they grow, and that is released to the atmosphere when they burn? So if we grow trees we remove carbon dioxide from the air? That seems more important than oxygen as the carbon dioxide level is more sensitive.

Yadvinder
25/8/2019 11:31:24 am

Yes, growing trees (on land that was previously deforested) is good for the carbon. They lock atmospheric carbon and make a small contribution to tackling climate change (though they cannot solve it - priority number one is still to stop emitting so much carbon dioxide through fossil fuel combustion). Our collective actions can affect the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration significantly because there is very little carbon dioxide in the atmosphere to start with. We do not affect atmospheric oxygen concentration in any biologically important way because there is so much oxygen already in the atmosphere.

strainer
25/8/2019 11:04:00 am

I think you missed the forest for the trees here. The respect in which forests are 'lungs' of the Earth is the long term production and maintenance of oxygen in the atmosphere, to basically replenish the oxidization of weathering rock. This rate of replenishment may perhaps be too low to resolve for individual forests at individual times, but over time it is essential to maintaining oxygen content. So to say you cant practically resolve what the amazons net oxygen product is momentarily, doesn't make a lie to the understanding -to the *respect* even. that it is a lung of the Earth, which is what the 20% figure owes to. Some overly rough estimate perhaps based on total photosynthesis, but not as rough as the impression your article has given people here, that forests are not ancient maintainers of the Earths atmosphere. You could also mention that growing forests certainly do have a significant impact on O2/CO2 budget, and burning them down more so.

Yadvinder
25/8/2019 11:24:06 am

Hi Strainer
The process (and small imbalance between oxygen production and imbalance) you refer to becomes relevant on million year plus timescales. Even then it is not related to the total amount of photosynthesis, but to where organic matter is being buried and removed from atmosphere and biosphere. This occurs in places like swamps, peat bogs and in particular deep ocean sediments. Material from the Amazon probably plays some role in this (e.g. organic material being swept out into the ocean and being buried in deep sediment), but this process is not strongly related to the amount of photosynthesis in any given area. I suspect the burial of a tiny fraction ocean plankton in deep sediments play a dominant role here.

strainer
25/8/2019 05:31:43 pm

Hi Professor :)
It could be said that it is by turn of phrase "strongly related" to the photosynthesis in that it owes entirely to photosynthesis and there would be zero net product, or almost any atmospheric oxygen if not for photosynthesis. I find unfortunate to teach that photosynthesis in the Amazon amounts to "effectively zero" because the amazon ecosystem is itself one of the earths oxygen consumers. How does it increase ecological understanding even less respect to describe a huge ecosystems involvement in a global matter as effectively zero?

I notice a number of published studies assessing the quantity of organic carbon exported from the Amazon basin within the river system. eg. "Up to 40 Tg of carbon are discharged along with suspended sediment load each year by the Amazon River into the Atlantic Ocean, which makes the Amazon the largest fluvial source of OC terr to the ocean (Dunne et al., 1998; Moreira-Turcq et al., 2003)."

So, if the findings stand 40Tg - less than 1% of human carbon emissions, but "the largest fluvial source of OC terr to the ocean" = effectively zero ?

Media does often report with inaccurately re-contextualized points, partisan and divisive readings and recall. I think you could have delivered your corrections and current perspective on the internals and externalities of the Amazon ecosystems carbon/oxygen processes better than amounting them to "effectively zero". Pity what some media could make of that advice...

strainer
25/8/2019 05:42:49 pm

oh dear i regret repeating that term rather manically. Its the take away point I spent a bit of effort attempting to contain in an interested forum.

Narudis
25/8/2019 11:04:34 am

But then, the burning of the trees do not increase the amount of CO2, diminishing the O2 concentration, thus unbalancing the system ?

Honeyradiance link
25/8/2019 11:16:20 am

Interesting and informative article. Yes I was familiar that plants, too, do use oxygen. But I want to bring up another point, and that is psychological. Lately, I have taken a turn to the Right on some things, despite having an ecological background. My mom is surprised when I debunk some of this climate doomsday stuff and crack jokes at Al Gore, saying "You of all people!" But here is why I have become...Not so much a "climate denier" as much as a "Climate Doonsday Porn Debunker." I will argue that the current trend in environmental reporting has become counterproductive. Furthermore, I now believe that the current "We are going to go extinct at the end of the century" mantra actually FACILITATES climate denial, rather than achieves its stated objective of "putting a fire under our ass to get us moving on cliamte emissions. Let me explain.

You may have read the myraid news stories that say "If we don't achieve our climate objectives" or "time is short" and that might add the disclaimer "Here's what you can do."

Except that everybody knows that there is really little anybody can do. Because corporations are all powerful, and, beside that, much deforestation is caused by small scale farmers in the tropics who have virtually no other alternative. Such mindset places burdens on the already strained Third World, and amounts to little more than preaching by rich industrial countries in the North for the South to "get its act in order." Keep in mind that those doing the preaching (WWF, British Royal Family, G8, and the Liberal Establishment writ large) are connected in with the VERY SAME AGENTS (World Bank, IMF, Bank of Intl Settlements, as well as myriads of big mining companies) who have it in their interest to keep Third World currencies as low as possible so as to strip them of their mineral wealth at rock bottom rates. Which then impoverishes the Third World more, keeps them in an arrested state of development, and drives them to destroy more forest.

All this amounts to fear sauce and preaching by the international elite appearing groundless and fake.

Do we need to do something to reduce carbon emissions? Yes. Do we need to take an active interest in saving the environment? Yes. But leaving people with the impression that there's little to do just creates learned helplessness. And learned helplessness causes apathy. A barrage of news articles in The Washington Post, New York Times, Guardian, and BBC all saying the mantra of "we're fucked, its over, hang it up Humanity, we're done," can lead someone to throw up his or her hands and do nothing. Which is probably exactly what its intended to do.

Thanks for debunking this fear. People need to see and hear this.

Donald Fraser
25/8/2019 12:59:59 pm

Greatly informative and confirmed what I remembered I remembered as a school child 30 odd years ago. My prime interest is FTL (Faster Than Light) atomic propulsion systems. My wife is from the Amazon (Beni, Bolivia). We live in The UK and while I am of Scottish descent by marriage the economics of Latin America do concern me. There are of course dozens of good reasons for the richer, post-industrial nations to try to stop The Amazon’s gradual destruction. I am however suspicious of the “lungs of the planet” argument. That is what brought me here. Thank you for your analysis.

strainer
25/8/2019 07:34:18 pm

That the Amazons carbon/oxygen budget may lately have been in equilibrium has been argued (ignoring the serious increase in deforestation and burning recently). But there is much more to the "lungs of the planet" idea than have been presented here. eg see https://www.iflscience.com/environment/amazon-carbon-sink-decline-trees-die-faster/

Honeyradiance link
26/8/2019 01:31:25 am

Interesting article. I never heard the "The faster trees grow, the faster they die" argument before. My assumption has always been that growth rates are static, determined mostly by DNA. But Nature again proves to be more dynamic and resilient than we thought. Right off the bat, something in the language of the article raises suspicion.

To quote: "The work we have led takes a simple approach. With many colleagues, we track the behaviour of individual trees through time across permanent plots distributed right across South America’s rain forests. Together with hundreds of partners in the RAINFOR network, this close-up look at the Amazon ecosystem has been underway since the 1980s, allowing an unprecedented assessment of how tropical forests have changed over the past three decades."

This language sounds extremely sales-ptichy. "MY team has done ____" and "we take a SIMPLE approach." When things in nature especially ecology are never that simple. Ecology is, in a way, a forensic science, very detective-like. You're doing investigative work into causes in order to determine future government. Except instead of collecting dna fibres and fingerprints to determine if the suspect is guilty so as to prosecute him, you're trying to determine what systems process is at fault, so as to design a better management strategy.

Still, though, the article does give a lot of thought and it does seem intuitive that if growth is accelerated, death will also be accelerated. Then it becomes an age structure and population age mortality problem. It isn't necessarily that the Amazon is "dying off" and will disappear as much as it will oscillate more wildly between rapid growth and rapid dyoff in some kind of new cyclical fashion.

Arun
26/8/2019 01:09:56 am

At the end of the day, environment should be preserved and protected.

happy Antifa
28/8/2019 06:02:18 am

How?

Honeyradiance link
26/8/2019 01:58:45 am

I want to go a little bit more into the psychology of this climate debate. Dissecting the arguments in op ed pieces for the big New York publications peddled to the public at large, I find a similar pattern. They start off with some grabbing headline: "Oceans warming faster than we thought." "10 nightmare scenarios for runaway greenhouse effect." "6th mass extinction closer and faster than we thought." Something like that. Then the articles will outline how little time we have to reduce emissions. Usually its too small a window of time for the bulk of humanity to shift its infrastructure and lifestyle. Especially poor humans who have to work a job or rely on fuel for heating or who are captives in this system which is controlled by oligarchs, a system they have little say in.

Then the article will jump into the scenarios, all of them bad, Mad Max type situations where the coastlines disappear, or growing seasons get disrupted. The article will then describe how Nature will kick in with feedback loops and runaway processes. Usually the argument goes like "Even if we reduce our carbon emissions to zero at that point, its too late." Nature is off an running, and Nature's process is now hijacked by Nature itself. 2 degrees really equals 6 degrees oi 8 degrees because 2 degrees is some "tipping point". The Amazon also is said to have a tipping point, a point of no return.

After this, the typical article progresses into the various worst case scenarios: Humans are going to be dumb because of lack of oxygen, the ocean is going to fart an immense amount of sulfur, etc etc etc.

Since the average person in the reading audience these articles are pitched to knows very well how little control he or she has over the decision-making process at Brussels or the G8, everything feels far removed, outside of his or her hands.

Faced with this gloomy, doomsday alarmism, the only alternative to restore sanity to the average worker is to turn to the Climate Denialists. Fox News, Breitbart, and Infowars suddenly sound, in comparison, much more cheerful. Or, if their fearmongering over hypoerinflation and immigration sounds bad, they don't sound as bad in comparison to that latest New York or Atlantic article about climate doomsday. Because Extinction is final. No one wants to believe or be told by experts that it is over. There must be some conspiracy...they must be lying..,.It can't be true...the little voices inside our heads say this. Denial is supposed to be one of the grieving and loss coping mechanisms.

Deinal is thus a psychological self defense mechanism, triggered by the deer in headlights paralysis that fright porn creates.

I must also add that these studies are usually based on computer models that extrapolate current trends, or extrapolate based off of a few isolated studies at worst, incomplete wide studies at best. Computer models forecasting climate doomsday are probably about as good or bad as computer models predicting whether or not an Exoplanet tidally locked in a Goldilocks Zone around a red dwarf star has an atmosphere. They are, in the end, theories and speculations.

Real science and in depth analysis, like this paper present above and others that have been posted in this comments section, shed much better light. the best antidote to psychologically-induced climate denial as a defense mechanism is better scientific literacy and better awareness of how ecology functions.

strainer
27/8/2019 06:40:46 pm

I see this 2015 paper which Y. Malhi actually co-authored, describes the Amazon ecosystem:

" One of the largest ecosystem carbon pools on Earth is the Amazon forest, storing around 150–200 Pg C in living biomass and soils8. Earlier studies based on forest inventories in the Amazon Basin showed the tropical forest here to be acting as a strong carbon sink with an estimated annual uptake of 0.42–0.65 Pg C yr−1 for 1990–2007, , around >>> 25% <<< of the residual terrestrial carbon sink"

This is TERRIBLY inconsistent with the advice doubled down on here, that amazon ecosystems part in the planets atmospheric carbon/oxygen cycle is ZERO. And it is no use standing on what the word "effectively" could possibly mean to "ecosystem science" this article has told people the amazon has zero contribution to the planets atmosphere, and that is mis-education.

That study finds that the ecosystems net product is recently in flux - and describes how that is a very grave matter because of its great size and capability to sink or release carbon (by way of sinking or releasing oxygen)

But this article mentions no flux, no danger, ZERO impact, while attacking a straw man: that people are being worried innaccurately about oxygen. Well I find the oxygen figure about respecting where oxygen comes from - we dont need to be running out of it to RESPECT it. And people a fatiged about hearing about "carbon" - CO2, Methane. it would be just another opportunity to increase understanding of the situation - to think about oxygen. A fine opportunity except for ecoscientists who should know better innaccurately ranting that the worlds oxygen cycle matters effectively zero.

Please do a follow up article with corrections/clarifications professor.

This articles restricted focus and omissions amount to false advice.

strainer
27/8/2019 06:46:02 pm

missing link : https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14283 "Long-term decline of the Amazon carbon sink"

Yadvinder
27/8/2019 07:32:38 pm

Thanks for persisting with this. It is good to clarify this as much as possible.
Firstly, I never claim that the effect on the carbon cycle is negligible. There is so little carbon dioxide in the atmosphere that small imbalances in the biosphere make a difference. This is a key point I make in the post, though I know that some people on social are choosing to extrapolate to carbon without actually reading the post.
On the Amazon forest carbon sink, indeed I am one of the team that made this discovery and I confounded the RAINFOR network that made these observations. It seems to be a response to higher CO2 in the atmosphere, but as the link you sent points out, it is a transient that is likely to decline within the next few decades. There is a corresponding oxygen emission of 1.5 Pg C/year, much smaller than the 20 Pg C of photosynthesis. The key point is that this flux is tiny compared to the huge atmospheric store of oxygen.

Yesterday my colleague Scott Denning published a piece in The Conservation making the same point about oxygen I do, but saying more about the long-term source of oxygen I allude to. https://theconversation.com/amazon-fires-are-destructive-but-they-arent-depleting-earths-oxygen-supply-122369

He points out that post of the long-term oxygen supply is from ocean photosynthesis, but that is most of the burial of organic matter into sediments exists. So in that long term the role of land regions (including the Amazon) is still tiny.

I noticed that Macron's statement at the end of G7 now emphasised the carbon and climate value of the Amazon: no more mention of the oxygen story. I think this is a good outcome. The urgent to protect the Amazon remains the same. No need to base the case on a scientific myth that is as detached from the scientific evidence as climate change denial us.

And the ecoscientists are allies who first drew these issues to global attention, just like the climate scientists. Don't beat up on them when the scientific evidence doesn't match the rhetoric.

strainer
27/8/2019 09:05:59 pm

Thankyou for replying professor.

I do find the supporting article flawed too. It warns of a publicity fad erroneously concerned about oxygen supply, but links to one single BBC posting in 2014 where the only apparent fault is that they described the amazon as "lungs of the planet" and an actually recent Macron Tweet which put out the 20% figure. An actual fad needing headed off at the creek, should not have to rely on a weak example from 2014 to point it out.

If the amazon did a few decades ago as the work declared amount to roughly 25% of the terrestrial carbon sink, then at that time it was 25% of the terrestrial oxygen source, so at the time the phrase "lungs of the earth" was popularised (by a Sir David Attenborough note) it was a fair illustration and "20% oxygen supply" was within narrating distance of what was knowable.

So now we have articles from scientists concerning the recent accelerated burning of forest, saying its bad for reasons... but read on I really have to educate you of these details so you understand that this will not deplete our oxygen supply. We can all safely forget about that any everyone who mentioned it is wrong.

And say things like this: "But virtually all of the oxygen produced by photosynthesis each year is consumed by living organisms and fires."

So, "planets lungs" is wrong because its used up just by "fires" and "living organisms" ie. not us. The organisms their use up all the oxygen - effectively zero impact really. Not really part of our planet, amazonian organisms.

Thanks for clearing this up ecoscientists \o/

I can but jest. Pendatic corrections are a tangled web. No ill meant to yourself or the quality of your day. Thanks for listening to the feedback anyway.

Happy Antifa
26/8/2019 06:14:23 am

The problem is we have way too many people on the planet and if we don't address this issue, nothing else really matters. The earth will become too inhospitable for humans and many other species but as long as the sun is shining, life will return.

So, either population control or, dig the pebble mine, kill the dolphins, whale away, let the owls die and the bees are worthless.

For the record, I never had kids.

Gwen J
26/8/2019 06:52:15 pm

This article is irresponsible. While I understated the science behind it because I'm a trained scientist, between this and Forbes, there are a slew of articles talking about how the Amazon doesn't produce our oxygen. Henceforth, people that were concerned now are saying it is no big deal

We have about a decade to get EVERYONE on board to correct this collision course we are on. This burning forrest issue hit mass consciousness. People were moved to action.

Now, due to articles like this, the climate deniers are soothing everyone back into inaction.

I hope you enjoy sitting on your thrown of precise information feeling smugly superior in parsing out the subtle difference of why oxygen doesn't matter instead of focusing on why keeping the Amazon is VITAL despite some misunderstanding about oxygen usage by lay people.

Enjoy your web traffic while the world literally burns around you.

Yadvinder
26/8/2019 07:29:07 pm

I am sorry you feel that way. As somebody that has dedicated their career to understanding and protecting the rainforests and the role in climate change, I will try not to be offended by your personal attack. I have long promoted the knowledge that tries to understand what is actually happening in Amazonia, and why protecting the Amazon. For example, you can see my contribution to the BBC on the Amazon fires and why the matter here: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-49450925

No ecosystem scientist I have spoken disagrees with the science in this post: it simply highlights a long-established scientific understanding that oxygen angle is a myth. Just like no serious climate scientist denies the seriousness and importance of human-caused made climate change. If you choose to be selective about which science to choose to hear you fall into the same trap as the climate deniers, construct your own alternative facts universe and you betray your scientific training. The also open yourself the other, more accurate arguments being discredited as a package when the scientific truth emerges

The truth has to stand for something in the challenge of finding a sustainable future.

Gwen J
27/8/2019 12:23:29 am

I understand what you are saying about correct science, but I've had no less than four people on my Facebook page site your article, the Forbes article, and some You tube video about how we don't need the Amazon for oxygen. They then go on to talk about how the rate of deforestation is way less than it used to be so we can leave this issue to the professionals. It isn't that big of a problem afterall. I actually had one friend compare the Amazon to Y2K based on your article.... all hype, no actual issues since it doesn't affect oxygen.

I appreciate you trying to educate people, but picked a poor topic and presented it in a poor way for the general, uneducated, read the headline public.

Gwen J
27/8/2019 12:34:55 am

Please excuse my typos. Talk to text is failing me today and my OCD self is obsessing about not being able to correct them.

Honeyradiance link
26/8/2019 11:13:28 pm

I guess some people misinterpret this article and mine, along with others' reactions to it here. I am not a climate denier. I am a climate DOOMSDAY debunker. There IS a difference. Global warming and cliamte change IS real, and has been real ever since the Earth has existed and with or without humans. In the past, as I understand it, Greenland, Antarctica, Siberia, and Northern Canada were once teeming with forests and crocodiles, and NOT just in a time frame outside of our current rotational and continental crustal migration, but due to hothouse earth conditions in the past. If Antacrtica was ice free in recent time frames geographically, then it can be ice free again.

It's just that we are going to have to re-think our conceptions of nations and borders. The burning of the Amazon WILL have disastrous consequences for the economy of South America and I'm about as unhappy about it as everybody. South America will become too warm for the vast majority of people to live there. In a hothouse situation, we are going to have to, all of us, move to Greenland, North Canada, Siberia, and Antarctica, and create new nations. Nations where all of us, from the whitest shade of white to the darkest shade of black, live together.

Might I suggest, and this is only speculation, that the real reason why its the "End of the World" is because its the End of the World for THEM: the small minority of elite on top of this planet. Don't believe me? Look up the Order of Hubertis, its one of the only truly International order, and consists of only 600 members worldwide. The world's richest and most powerful men, all of noble birth. It's Maltese cross is GREEN and not red or black like the other high orders. It's all about conservation and fishing and they go out on outdoors expeditions hunting and fishing. What do you think they do out there? Besides hunting and fishing? Probably laugh and joke about us the peons. And when you see the British royal family take a privarte jet for the fourth time in 11 days, using 41 times more carbon than on a commercial jet, and hop around the world while they lecture us on eating hamburgers and driving motorcycles, it makes you sick and gives you a different picture on this climate debate. It's the End of THEIR world because its the end of THEIR nations. So they cry and raise alarm and talk about extinction. Fact is, Hothouse Earth existed before, and it didn't mean the end of the world then and it didn't mean the end of biodiversity either. In Holocene times, about 8000 years ago, the Sahara Desert was filled with large inland seas and lakes, and was a teeming environment filled with swamps. Before that, it was a desert drier than it is now. All within the past 30,000 years it went through two major changes. All within Human time frames. Though climate change WILL have severe impacts on economies, we can still survive and probably WILL survive. I see people on here arguing neo-Malthusian arguments.

We are going to have to change how we view politics, boundaries, and economies.

Honeyradiance link
26/8/2019 11:34:55 pm

Malthusianism is NOT the way. And neither is Communism. Most of this climate debate pushes people toward those two extremes. It's to push the agenda of control of people, control of borders, and control of how we live our lives. Communist countries were and ARE some of the world's biggest polluters. Yes, Capitalism DOES have problems with its never ending growth paradigm. But the alternative creates technological stagnation which leads to the use of outdated technologies. Polluting technologies. Freedom and Liberty, on the other hand, promote the growth of new ideas which lead to new technologies. Stuff like batteries that store one electron at a time and windows in buildings that capture sunlight and store its energy, as talked about in one TEDx lecture. Business are already building carbon capture devices that capture carbon 1000 times more than a tree. Don't fall for the propaganda of a small minority that wants to reduce us down to a fraction of our population and cram us into tiny glass boxes in cities while they roam around and golf on nature preserves all for themselves. Because that's what the TRUE International Communist Agenda is about, with the CEO's of corporations as the new Communist Apparatchiks.

Don't tall for the Malthusian population reduction crap either; Larger populations CAN mean larger numbers of the upper percentile of intelligence among us creating solutions and creating new resources. We just have to become more energy efficient and be creative. Civilizations fall and go backward when populations are cut down. Because the number of human resources and the number of brains contributing to problem solving goes down.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Order_of_St._Hubertus

Happy Antifa
27/8/2019 04:11:18 am

Brazil is a sovereign country and what they do with their land is their business. Alaska is United States land and the Bristol bay is about to be destroyed. I don't want the rainforests destroyed, but I don't want to send in troops to defend them either. Let's concentrate on our own backyard. The pebble mine needs to be stopped.

Megan Parton
26/8/2019 09:20:04 pm

Is there a way to calculate how many trees per location or continent need to be planted to
help with the CO2 emissions while the rainforests regenerate (assuming they stop sometime soon). It would be amazing to start targeted campaigns to plant that number of trees across the world. It wouldn’t be the same as the rainforests, but it would help in general and allow people to physically do something while they feel helpless from afar.

Happy Antifa
27/8/2019 04:17:08 am

The only good news about the environment is the earth is going to drastically reduce the human population and we have nobody to blame but ourselves. They are estimating the population to be reduced to around 1 billion by the end of the century and I cannot think of a nicer paradise to live in. The only way I see to save us alive at this point is with a time machine.

Multinational Proud Boy link
27/8/2019 10:22:33 am

Wow, Thanks for the admission. "They are estimating the population to be reduced to around 1 billion by the end of the century and I cannot think of a nicer paradise to live in."

Couldn't be better spoken than Prince Phillip and Prince Bernhard Himself. The Alt Right, and Intellectual Dark Web needs to see this! I've taken a screenshot for all to see. So that people can see what the Woke Left agenda is really all about: Anti-Whiteness as a metaphysical conception of anti-middle class American lifestyle. So that the dominant leisure class can turn the entire world into a nature reserve. For themselves. Themselves and nobody else. You've either got to be kidding, an Alt Right troll, or one of the people in the know from the top of the agenda above the universities, media, and corporations.

FK ANTIFA
27/8/2019 02:54:20 pm

You've missed some actual research. You can talk the crap all you want, you people are not breeding or turn your kids transgender or gay. The conservative people around the globe will always have common sense, and we breed. Even if you're right, you will disappear and we won't.

Megan
28/8/2019 04:07:44 am

You were not helpful at all.
I posted a question asking how we can help and all you say is “let those who die die so the rest who are left flourish.” So. not. Helpful.

happy Antifa
28/8/2019 06:06:58 am

There is no helping the situation, that's my point. Idiots voted the orange turd in, idiots voted bolsonaro in. You can't cure idiocy. The earth CAN cure idiocy.

Its a world war between Americas north and south now. Pick your side. If you choose south, pick a hood.

Steve Serra
27/8/2019 12:25:18 pm

There is a huge fallacy in the theory of the Net Zero Contribution. When trees, foilage and grass dies and falls into the soil, only part of it is decomposed using oxygen, parts are done by anaerobic bacteria, and other parts still become part of the soil, much cover providing nutrients for the trees and plants. The soil levels keep increasing over time, effectively being a huge mass of carbon and other various compounds, WHICH have not used the all of the oxygen produced by photosynthesis.

Paul Conklin
27/8/2019 03:26:57 pm

In reading these comments I am saddened by the number of people who seem to be commenting without reading the article. The article states clear and in simple terms that the the "effectively zero" statement refers to the the effect of the Amazon on GLOBAL OXYGEN CONCENTRATION. And states, again simply and clearly, that forest have a significant and measurable effect on GLOBAL CARBON DIOXIDE CONCENTRATIONS. Yet the most critical comments are attacking the article for claiming that it says the Amazon has "effectively zero" contribution to carbon dioxide levels. It is like making a cake and using salt instead of sugar because they are both white crystals, and then attacking the the recipe writer because your cake tastes awful. People are picking out two words and then jumping on their high horse. Thanks Yadvinder for trying.

Yoram Gerchman
27/8/2019 07:32:13 pm

The argument that the Amazon Forest (and any other forest) does not contribute net oxygen is technically correct but in reality the forest is not replaced by sterile soil (i.e. no microbial metabolism) but by crops and cows, and cows do not contribute any oxygen, just consume it.

Honeyradiance link
28/8/2019 12:17:38 am

There IS some good news, a silver lining, in all of this. Studies have found that secondary growth tropical forest absorbs 11 times more carbon than old growth forests. Much of the rainforest preservation talk has been on primary growth forests, because they have the greatest biodiversity and the greatest number of species. And cutting primary growth forests always involves some species loss. But re-growth of forests can provide important bridges between primary growth patches, slowing some of that species loss.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2016/02/160208135436.htm

The only trick and challenge is to keep the soil that has been cleared for agriculture from desertifying so that new growth can happen again. And reducing drought. Fortunately, the Chinese may have found an answer: a paste made from cell walls of plants that, when mixed with desert sand, retains moisture and helps plants and trees to grow in it. Moisture retention is one of the greatest fears associated with deforestation because trees also retain moisture.

https://www.greenmatters.com/news/2017/09/25/Z1OEAxp/china-researchers-deserts-fertile-land

All hope is not lost.

Paul Beckwith link
28/8/2019 05:11:48 am

Great information; I sincerely thank you. It cleared up a lot for me and I filmed 5 videos on the Amazon Rainforests.

1) You estimate a 10% rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration, or 40 ppm if the whole Amazon rainforest burned down. Is this the initial pulse, or the value with dynamic equilibrium with the ocean (i.e. with half going quickly into the ocean increasing acidification)?

2) According to the Wiki Amazon Rainforest there are an estimated 390 billion trees in the Amazon Rainforest. With your 40 ppm equivalence, could we deduce to first order that for every 10 billion trees we plant globally we can lower global CO2 concentrations by 1 ppm?

Thanks again. Brilliant work!!!

Happy Antifa
28/8/2019 05:40:00 am

Some proud BOY said something to me. When you are ready to stand up to pee you come talk to the antifa MAN.

You morons think we gave all our guns to Obama.

We won't let the south surrender this time. Bring it on BOYS.

Multinational Proud Boy link
28/8/2019 12:41:59 pm

Will do, mister. It's not us wearing the hood though. This time its not the South that brought back the auction block. It's Hillary Clinton, in Libya, and Al Qaeda. It's not the Covington kid in Kentucky that's displacing Black and Latinos from their neighborhoods. It's YOU guys, with your gentrified rents, gentrified housing, that brought back the Bubonic Plague because of the surge in homelessness on the coasts. It's YOU guys and your 3 million deported immigrants under Obama, 2 million under Bush. Trump is just a dog who barks a lot but doesn't bite. Once I saw the world as you do but I have been enlightened by new facts.

The Alt Right shriveled up before you because their stupidity bolstered your position. But the Proud Boys are a lot harder to defeat, because we accept brown and black and gay people into our fold. That's why we are harder to defeat. Because we have a case, and we are willing to match blood for blood.

See you on the battlefield in the next American civil war.

Happy Antifa
29/8/2019 05:36:46 am

The hood you are wearing is the dark web, boy. The threat your boys club makes is sticks and torches and plowing people down with cars and shooting up a walmart that has brown people in it. The excuses your boys club uses is wild accusations like sexuality, or lack of breeding or the plague (that one was new to me). The war is on. Your boys club started it and want it.

I am a firm believer in trying to speak with the other bubble and would welcome a serious discussion with you and your boys club. I don't know if we can talk in this forum but I am more than willing to find a proper place we can discuss culture and politics in that is more appropriate. If we can talk here I am ok with that too. If you want to go hide in your dark places, I am used to that.

I know you have conviction in your beliefs, I also know you are wrong... deep down you know you are wrong too.

Multinational Proud Boy link
29/8/2019 11:21:16 am

Listen, when this whole thing started, I took Trump at face value and opposed him when he said stuff about immigrants. I didn't vote for him and won't be voting for him this time either.

But then as the years progressed, I started to see a different picture. A more broad, expansive picture. I began to see Democrats using "racism" and the bully stick to try and force people to vote for their side. (A vote for ____ is a vote for Trump. White silence is White Complicity,") etc etc. Well what if I don't agree fully with the Democratic OR the Republican stance? What if I wanted to write in my own candidate, like Neil Degrasse Tyson?

I began to see Twitter mobs harass and destroy the careers of innocent people who might even have quite Liberal views but who didn't follow the script. Like teenagers get death threats just because they wore a trump hat and were pro life. Meanwhile, assholes like James Lovelock get to sit in their English cottage and jack off about the extinction of Humanity and its replacement by Cyborgs, and get to have their opinions lauded by the likes of The Guardian.

About a few months after I voted for Hillary Clinton (because I felt I HAD to because it was either her or Trump), I found a video where I heard her laughing about Libya and Gaddafi's replacement. Say what you will about him, things have been far worse AFTER him. Then I saw the cages, with Black people being sold at auction in Libya by Al Qaeda.

Then, Gentrification. Don't get me started on that. It would take a book to explain how communities of LGBT, women, etc are being broken up by apartment flippers, all the while the cities are being filled with "Community" as slogans. I began to see the entire leftist rhetoric as hollow and empty, and began to view things in more Orwellian terms. That, maybe things are the opposite of what they say they are. Yes there's a lot of assholes on the Right, and I don't have issues with immigrants. Frankly, if you ask me, I wouldn't mind if they took away the wealth of corporate war criminals and distributed it to Blacks, buying them homes. My beef is not with LGBT and people of color, women, etc. My beef is when a Black guy who is the only Black lawyer to hold a chair position at Harvard getting mobbed out by woke "feminists" because he took on Weinstein's case as a defense lawyer. I am against mob justice, from whatever side its on.

You can talk about immigrants and economic justice issues all day long, and debate the merits of each side, but once freedom of speech and freedom of expression goes out the window, that's it. It's over. I see Silicon Valley execs feeling "virtuous" and "high and mighty" for censoring some right wing kid off their platforms all the while their industries drive up the prices of housing in San Francisco so that all these people they claim to speak for can't afford to live there. And then I heard stuff to the effect that, despite Trump's rhetoric, he deported less people so far than either Bush or Obama did at the same time in their administrations. I am responding to this knee jerk Woke mob culture.

I don't hate you and I try and be a reasonable person. It's not me that hates Humanity. Look up the founders of a lot of so-called "Leftie" causes and NGO's., like Prince Bernhard, James Lovelock, etc. These people hate humanity and are using "racism," "homophobia" and "Islamophobia," "rape culture" as buzzwords to stir emotions to get people shut down all free expression, and I don't appreciate it and it makes me mad. I don't like being played for a fool.

Multinational Proud Boy link
29/8/2019 11:57:45 am

I mean, I can go on even further. I see Neil DeGrasse Tyson get shit for touching a woman's arm and have to apologize. Meanwhile, when rapper XXXTentacion beats his girlfriend to an inch of her life, and then she puts up a Go Fund Me type account to pay for her surgical treatment for her eye (which XXXTentacion caused), she gets shut down by a mob of activists and fans. And then when XXXTentacion dies, The Atlantic and New York Times write glowing reviews about his "misunderstood genius." All because he virtue signaled some Anti-White rhetoric. I see Oprah Winfrey say "times up" for people like me because I happen to have a dick, yet she rolls with abusers of children and lauds and praises cult faith healers down in Brazil who get arrested for sex trafficking. Who is she to lecture me about rape culture just because I, as a man, might want companionship? I see Brett Weinstein, who has quite liberal views on a lot of things, get hounded out of Evergreen College just because he objected in an email to a "day of absense for White people." Then when I remembered Lovelock and Juan Carlos and Prince Bernhard and the other top bloodline old money's obsession with "Green" politics, it all crystalized for me. This whole anti-White, anti-Male rhetoric must be motivated by a hatred for people breeding and living the American middle class lifestyle. There are no White people in Europe. There are Italians, Irish, etc. I fully understand that "White" is a social construction, a product of America. But when I see "Whiteness" talked about by the Left now, I see a white picket fence home, rugged individual, and driving to the grocery store to buy grocieries. I started to see this whole thing as an attack on a lifestyle and way of life. When I see Obama lecturing Africa on how they can't have air-conditioners, it all crystallized for me. A few old money elites are rigging this entire thing because they don't want you breeding and living a good life. This isn't about race, really, at the end of the day. This is about Whiteness as an Idea, a conception. Because leftie tracts on Whiteness (many of which I have read) always link it back to that American conception of the Rugged Individual. When I watch Tim Pool and Amazing Atheist, David Rubin and Joe Rogan talk about the extremes of mob justice in the culture war, and think about the old Club of Rome statements on climate and depopulation, I start to think that Alex Jones and other people like him have a point and say things that are true. Granted, I may not agree with Jones on stuff like immigration, but he does have a point about the arrogance of the very top of the Left. So now you know where I am coming from. It would do people well to at least listen to some of the stuff being said on the other side, and not just judge them as a bunch of evil bigots. As they would say, "to take the plank out of thine eye before one sees clearly to take the speck of sawdust out of thy neighbor's eye." Or sayings like "do as they say, not as they do."

Happy Antifa
29/8/2019 12:54:13 pm

I agree, humans are pathetic animals and tribal.

I am going to bring up Germany and hitler now.

Fascism (/ˈfæʃɪzəm/) is a form of far right-wing, authoritarian ultranationalism characterized by dictatorial power, forcible suppression of opposition, and strong regimentation of society and of the economy which came to prominence in early 20th-century Europe.

This was the beginning of our disagreement I feel. All those people in Germany back then should have been antifa but instead they allowed what happened to happen. They weren't aware like modern day people how something like that could happen cause it wasn't taught to them that it could happen. Germany was well documented as being very liberal and well read and happy and progressive until the rise of nazism. The orange turd is fascist, plain and simple. The orange turd rose to power cause of his base. Hitler rose to power cause of his base. I have hated the orange turd since the 80s (before I knew what his so called politics were), likewise I have always liked the Clintons. I don't agree with everything the Clintons did, I love Obama and I don't agree with many things he did, but if racism is going to rise its not going to be the left, liberals, democrats, progressives... whatever you want to call it. I am 53 now, I never understood how those german death camps were able to come into fruition when the basic premise of "mob rules" applies to all humanity.. until now.

I have to keep in mind that everything the orange turd says is a lie, makes things much clearer. Liberal media lies some of the time. The right news media lies most of the time. When I see proud boy rallies and the mayhem then the spokesmen for the proud boys, all I see is brainwashed rhetoric and confused justification for being pro-fascism. Its like special ed logic, almost comprehension. Not as bad as religion, but close.

The confederacy was the definition of treasonous behavior and all those statues are statues of traitors. The people that want those statues up are not the liberals, left, democrats, progressives. The people that are fighting to keep those up are the proud boys and people like the proud boys. The people that want the southern ideology to rise again are not the left, liberals. I myself have many right wing leaning thinking. I see things the liberals are doing that makes me cringe. I even understand Steve Miller and the orange turd sometimes. If I had to pick a side, I am left. All Americans should be left. About 30 percent are right. We better start talking. We are about to go to war over abortion rights, basically. I am more than happy to not let what happened in 30s Germany happen in the country I love. If war is needed, I am game.

I have always been anti fascist, why isn't every American?

Multinational Proud Boy link
29/8/2019 02:13:16 pm

OK, I see where you're coming from and I understand. I am 50 and I grew up hating the Right because I felt that it was a mob mentality. I remember when Christian progagandists would accuse Judas Priest of inciting children to kill themselves, and I remember Right Wing mobs of TV pundits and evangelicals rail against innocent Black men like the Central Park 5, or, in my home town, a Black guy who killed a cop in self defense and got off but was nevertheless vilified by the trial of public opinion as a "cop killer." So I understand. Today, some of the stuff coming from so-called "Progressives" when they go after some milktoasty Youtuber reminds me an awful lot like that.

Because I disagreed with blaming all Arabs and Muslims for what happened on 911, I began to be a 911 Truther and look at the information pointing to it being an inside job. I began to listen to people like Alex Jones, David Icke, Alan Watt, etc and began to look into secret societies and secretive memberships. I began to look at esoteric information and study bloodlines. When I heard Ron Paul in 2008 speak about the US war machine, I listened. I accepted some of this Paleo-Conservatism, although I had reservations. Still do. I even started my own conspiracy podcast and talk show with a chatroom and everything. Unfortunately, I got mobbed by a bunch of trolls and idiots who bashed me for not "talking about the Jewish question." And when I didn't go on board with that, I got hounded out. Friends betrayed me. It isn't the Jews and I never thought it was the Jews. If some Proud Boys feel that, fuck 'em. They're idiots. I understand that there are many chapters and a diversity, a range of opinions among them, being that they are nation wide. For the record, I am not really a Proud Boy member. I just called myself that when I saw your initial post about the population being only a billion and that being a paradise. It triggered thoughts of Maltusian depopulationists at the top of society masquerading as "greenie lefties" and conjured up all the images described by Alan Watt and Alex Jones over the years. But now I see you are a more reasonable person.

Another reason why I called myself "multinational proud boy" was because, over the years and after much thought, reading both Ayn Rand AND Marx and other Communist literature, I formulated my own synthesis of economic and political thought. That, if all people of every race, be they Black, Hispanic, White, Asian, LGBTQ, woman, whatever, had their own independent homestead and had the same kind of lifestyle commonly associated with White America, then people would have a lot more freedom and agency. And I also began to understand that not all rich people are created equal, but some are imperialist scumbags that rely on war and prison profiteering and military force, while others rely on the market and pure free voluntarism of customer choice. I began to understand that not all wealth should all be treated equally. That, instead of using Income and Profits alone as a criterion of what liberties should be taken away (taxes), it should be based on actions. An Individual must be accountable to his or her own actions. That. the Pizza guy down the street who opens a restaurant to make a profit for himself is not the same as Halliburton or Exxon oil or some other firm that lobbies for tougher sentences so that his taxpayer-funded private prisons can incarcerate more people. I came to an understanding that you CAN have a capitalistic, free market system without these gross inequities if you were willing to countenance re-distribution of wealth in some circumstances. That not all people deserve the same tax breaks. Socialism and Communism treats all profit equally as bad, whereas extreme Tea Party right wing-ism treats all rich people as good and deserving. Both of them are one size fits all. It would not have been out of line in an Ayn Rand type individualism, for instance, if the government at the end of the civil war took away the plantations from the plantation owners and re-distributed them equally to Blacks as compesnation, as Charles Sumner wanted to do. That would not be Socialism in the "bad sense" as right wing libertarians would call it. Because these plantation owners enacted force against innocent people. But just because America has committed grave sins against its own standard of liberty does not mean that the idea of Individual Liberty itself is bad.

It seems to me that the system they are trying to bring in is going to be a combination of Soviet Communism and Nazi fascism. It will be Soviet in the sense that its rhetoric sounds international and anti-racist and caters to diversity, etc (because that's what they need to do to get everybody on board.) But in another sense it will be fascist Hitler type because it will be private corporations in partnership with the World State. And it will be equally opportunity Eugenicist. As Jason Lovelock himself said,

Multinational Proud Boy link
29/8/2019 02:35:03 pm

I have a different vision than these World State planners. I don't see Nationalism as the way. I see things more like a global version of the Articles of Conferdation but bolstered by the Bill of Rights. You may say, "Well, that sounds like the United Nations." Not exactly., The UN is top down and controlled by member states where the big players get the lions share of the votes. I see a market system that treats society not as a zero sum game winner take all loser take nothing, but of individuals empowered to solve problems and expand our wealth pool.

Earlier I mentioned Neil DeGrasse Tyson. I think he is a great thinker because he advocates going into space and colonizing asteroids and moons for mineral wealth. Being that these are airless, lifeless worlds, this would be a victim-less enterprise. Not like the original America with the Native Americans and Europeans. It could provide lots of opportunities for poor people all over the world. I envision the "Virtual Homestead," and what I mean is this: that poor people here on Earth would stay on Earth, but would collect royalties and dividends from the cooperative ownership of stock in mining companies off world. Mining to be done by AI and robots remotely. Reparations for Africans in Africa and Blacks in America, as well as other oppressed groups: lower caste Indians in India, Armenians, etc could be accomplished by the set up of colonial mining companies for offworld development. We could create the American Callisto Company, the futuristic version of those old colonial companies like the British East India Company. But geared more toward rectifying poverty on Earth. Mining offworld could save this planet for gardening and greenery. This way we CAN have a high population at a good standard of living and high consumption without impact. I don't see it as mutually excliusive. That's why I would endorse Tyson as a leader and make my stand and say that's why I'm writing him in.

Donald Fraser
29/8/2019 03:08:31 pm

You say "Meanwhile, assholes like James Lovelock get to sit in their English cottage and jack off about the extinction of Humanity and its replacement by Cyborgs". You confuse Stephen Hawking's AI existential threat with Lovelock's "A Final Warning" (published 2009). One is a physicist, one an environmentalist. Your confusion is interesting because "Jump Star Science" seeks to fuse those two scientific disciplines within a new political science for the purpose of constructing atomic space ships. I am glad you understand Orwell, a man from our land of cottages. No cyborgs here, yet. PS. The Libya thing broke the "Bush Doctrine".

Happy Antifa
29/8/2019 03:46:34 pm

As far as socialism and communism, I think most people against those things just use the words as buzz words. I was raised on star trek and always thought that was the perfect utopian society. That fictional society is pure communism (almost). All societies we see today are corrupted by money and power and nationality. We just have to make do with what we have. In north korea they have public executions when any crime in committed and anyone over 12 has to watch it (there is a guy on youtube called "asian boss" that interviews north korean defectors, very interesting). America isn't on the fast track to that, we ARE on the fast track to a dictatorship based on amassing more money and more power. I can see in maybe 5 or 10 years bussing brown people to the border and wishing them into the cornfield. We MUST oppose this ideology. If it takes open borders, fine. I have never once thought of open borders until the orange turd brought it up.

If you know any confederate ideology people, I would love to talk to them. I don't want to see the civil war flare up again, but I will gladly fight for the ideology I love.

As far as the world population being dropped to 1 billion, could you imagine anything that would make the quality of life for humans and the earth and all the living things on earth any better? With all the tech we have? Personally, the only other option to saving the human race in my opinion is time travel. Outer space isn't an option yet.

Multinational Proud Boy link
29/8/2019 04:44:24 pm

Donald Fraser: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/cyborgs-will-replace-humans-remake-world-james-lovelock-says-ncna1041616

On all biological life dying and us being replaced by Cyborgs: "f this strikes you as a grim scenario, you’re not thinking like Lovelock. “I'm now past a hundred and to have an optimistic view is the only one worth having,” he says. Humans have had a great run on Earth, he writes, and before we bow out, we’re engaged in one of the noblest things we could do: “We are now preparing to hand the gift of knowing on to new forms of intelligent beings.”"



And The Daily Mail: Lovelock: Europe will be as hot as it was in 2003 - between 110F and 120F. It is not the death of people that is the main problem, it is the fact that the plants can't grow. There will be almost no food grown in Europe. "

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-541748/Were-doomed-40-years-global-catastrophe--theres-NOTHING-says-climate-change-expert.html

"We are about to take an evolutionary step and my hope is that the species will emerge stronger. It would be hubris to think humans as they now are [are] God's chosen race.[31]"

He sees the death of a lot of Humans and the survivors going to the Arctic to survive as an "evolutionary step." That is the core of Eugenics: killing off a large portion but having the survivors be smarter and intelligent. That is what Eugenics is, basically: directed evolution through artificial selection. Social Darwinism 101.

Happy Antifa: Time travel is less do-able than space travel, at least in the near term. Long term would be Warp Drive, achievable through an Alcubierre Warp Metric probably using metamaterials and polaritons, negative energy particles. The most feasible type of time travel allowed would be acceleration to near the speed of light. Keep in mind its only one way, into the future, using special relativistic Tim Dilation. In that event, you'd be traveling to another world. But in the near term, robotic mining of asteroids using chemical rockets or nuclear rockets to get there and AI-robotics to mine them. I'm not an anti futurist or a luddite. I just don't like the idea of humans being replaced by cyborgs or merging with them. That will lead to corporate control of our bodies and decision making. Now, Elon Musk may argue that cellphones and current technology are ALREADY a manifestation of this, but that's a slippery slope. I was a fan of Elon Musk and am STILL supportive of his space colonization idea. But according to Alex Jones latest podcasts, Elon Musk has now bought into this "chip in the brain" idea. If that is true then he will have fallen from my favor. (I will have to do some digging to verify because I take what Infowars says with a grain of salt--part of their stuff is true and part of it is exaggeration many times. Or a spin I use Infowars as well as others mainly as a launching point to follow leads in my own reasearch and I check and verify everything for myself). Actually, I consider Alex Jones to be false and am not a supporter of him. Em hmm...need to clear my throat and utter a correction. There ARE podcasters out there, who talk about the same kind of conspiracy related information as Alex Jones, and cover the same material, but expose him as a shill for the establishment. The reason why I came off so heavy and strong earlier seeming in support of him is because....see, when free speech is taken away by censors in the name of "fighting hate speech," it forces me to defend people I don't like in the name of BEING ALLOWED TO SAY STUFF that is, say 60% like Alex Jones but differing by 40%. Just to clarify. Not a supporter of Alex Jones. But AM a supporter of texas researcher Josh Reeves at The Global Reality, a podcaster and film maker who exposed Alex Jones as a fraud yet does material that would be similar to Alex Jones in many respects but with some key differences in spin.

What was that they say again? "I may totally disagree with ____ but I will defend his or her right to speak it."

Multinational Proud Boy link
29/8/2019 05:13:41 pm

Oh, and Happy Antifa, about brown people being bussed into the cornfield, I don't see that happening unless the country were to split into separate nations. But this is what I see most likely to happen. The Democrats are going to put up somebody really mainstream and milktoasty like Biden. If he wins over Trump, then we'll have Biden and in 2022 the Republicans will mount a counterattack. Then we'll get a Republican congress and a right wing speaker of the house. It'll be back to the old Obama/Paul Ryan, Bill Clinton / Newt Gingrich collaboration and things will just continue to slide down. That's what's most likely to happen. If Donald Trump gets re-elected, then Congress will become even more Progressive in 2022 and Donald Trump will be severely limited in his authority to carry out his egregious anti immigrant policies. The latter option is kinda better, in a way. Because now the Democrats are talking universal health care and virtue signaling Reparations and stuff. But they'll be lucky if they can just keep Social Security amid republican strides to "entitlement reform." Our two party system sucks and that's how the Left and Right really work hand and in hand and collude with each other and are really just the One Party of the Rich.

salvo
28/8/2019 01:51:30 pm

thank you for the article, but there is something I don't understand.

If I search for "where does oxygen on this planet come from" I find scientific articles saying Earth was initially devoid of oxygen, and it build up over millions of years through photosynthesis:

"Nearly all of the oxygen found on Earth today is produced by biological activity. During the process of photosynthesis, carbon dioxide and water react in the presence of chlorophyll to produce carbohydrates and oxygen. Scientists believe that oxygen was essentially absent from the earth's atmosphere when the planet was first created. As life developed on Earth and photosynthesis became more common, the rate of production increased until the present concentration of oxygen in the atmosphere, the oceans, and the crustal rocks was reached about 580 million years ago."

https://science.jrank.org/pages/4967/Oxygen-Where-oxygen-comes-from.html

so, most oxygen being produced by photosynthesis of ocean plants, the rest, ca 20% by terrestrial plants. But, I wonder, if the Amazon as closed ecosystem is a zero oxygen emitter because it consumes as much oxygen as it produces, how was that built up of oxygen in the atmosphere possible? Should then the planet as closed ecosystem not be a zero net producer, too?
Thanks.

Vampyricon
31/8/2019 03:28:53 am

So they're literally missing the forest for the trees?

leung wing mo
9/9/2019 09:15:33 am

Prof Malhi, since the terrestrial environment (mainly forest) sequesters about a net amount equivalent to 2/9 of anthropogenic CO2 emission (according to NASA), then, there must be a NON-ZERO increase in O2 as a result of photosynthesis. How do we reconcile the conclusion that "the net contribution of the Amazon ECOSYSTEM (not just the plants alone) to the world's oxygen is effectively zero."?

Mikhail
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May I request for the bibliography? I wish to be able to explain this fully to others. Thank you.

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Hungary's biggest (independent / leftish / greenish) online media site index.hu cited your article in an interpretation that emphasized the conclusion "effectively zero", and the article applied this to the total carbon / oxygen cycle, i.e. it states that it does not play a role neither in O2 production nor CO2 elimination. Even the original title (visible in the URL, presumably changed after publication) of the article is translated as "the tropical forests do not absorb CO2 but it is not good that they are burning".

https://index.hu/tudomany/til/2019/08/27/az_esoerdok_nem_is_nyelnek_el_szendioxidot_de_azert_nem_jo_hogy_leegnek/

The article even supports this claim by facts like that in tropical forests there is not much carbon locked is soil.

I actually changed my original understanding that tropical forests absorb and lock CO2 because of this and accepted it's reasoning because it cited relevant (ly looked) sources. I went after this only now (4 months later) because of reading other claims in this topic.

And I have to admit, that at first glance, I did not read your article differently, either, I needed Strainer's comment referring your 2015 paper to understand that your "effectively zero" statement is valid only compared to the O2 concentration, but the same absolute quantity results in a HUGE percentage compared to Earth's total CO2 sink.

If there is such a big misunderstanding in a climate change-aware medium of your article, then it is a problem IMHO.

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